When I wrote recently about the upcoming Israel-Iran War, I predicted that “Israel will provoke a war with Hezballah in 2010 to defeat them and to deplete their arsenal in the context of a conventional war.”
Now I see Haaretz is agreeing that Israel might be planning to attack Hezballah preemptively. The article mentions the upcoming negotiations between Israel and the PA and a Syrian concern that any final solution agreement would effectively leave the bizarre and fanatic Alawi-Ba’ath regime isolated in the middle east. If peace were ever actually to be achieved in Israel, the Syrians worry, we would suddenly face enemies for the first time on a mere two fronts – the north and northeast, one of which has been quiet for a long time – and almost no incentive to resolve those relatively minor conflicts. In that event, Syria would be locked out of reclaiming the Golan Heights not only in the near future, but under almost any conceivable turn of events in the next generation. It’s imperative, consequently, that they make sure to derail the negotiations or get included in them: anything but another agreement limited to Israel and the PLO.
Also, Haaretz and the AP say that Hezballah and Syria may be preparing for a war with Israel jointly.
Why would the Syrian regime risk open conflict with Israel after fighting Israel almost entirely by proxy since the 1970s and negotiating sporadically since 1991? A resounding defeat could more than put Assad on very shaky ground – it could end his rule and possibly his life. But there’s also a lot to gain. The Golan Heights is on the table now in every single interaction between Israel and Syria. If Israel’s war with Hezballah and Syria proceeds like every other war Israel has fought, a negotiated settlement will be imposed by the international community, meaning by the United States. And that means by President Obama and his administration.
The Syrians may believe that they have a better chance to wrest the Golan from Israel now by getting Damascus bombed in an open war and then by having Obama step in to shore up their regime as a way of isolating Iran further to prevent the Mullahs’ regime from finishing a nuclear weapon that could destroy Israel. If that’s true, it reflects some extremely cunning and bold thought, as the schismatic-heterodox Alawi, who aren’t even Muslims by a reasonable definition of the term, actually could do the job of maneuvering Hezballah away from direct Iranian influence (though they’d still hate Israel and try to destroy us).
Bottom line: I still predict a war between Israel and Hezballah in 2010. If it doesn’t happen this year, then I’m even more inclined now than before to think it will happen before the shit hits the fan with Iran – Israel simply does not want to risk allowing Iran to sit at the table that dictates the terms to end Lebanon War III.
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